왜 10-Year Treasury Yield(10년물 국채 수익률)를 알아야 하나요?

채권 (bond): 정부나 공공기관, 금융기관, 특수법인, 일반법인 등이 비교적 장기의 자금을 조달하기 위하여 일정한 조건에 따라 발행하는 유가증권 (유가증권: 증권, 주식, 어음, 수표)

 

Treasury:미국연방정부가 재정자금을 마련하기 위해 미재무부 명의로 발행하는 채권 만기에 따라

단기 국채 (Treasury Bill: T-bill) mature at terms ranging from a few days to 52 weeks.

중기 국채인 (treasury: T-note) matures in two to 10 years.

장기 국채 (treasury bond: T-bond) matures in 20 or 30 years

 

Treasury bond yields (or rates) are tracked by investors for many reasons. 

The yields are paid by the U.S. government as interest for borrowing money via selling the bond. But what does this mean, and how do you find yield information?

 

The 10-year Treasury yield is closely watched as an indicator of broader investor confidence. Because Treasury bills, notes, and bonds carry the full backing of the U.S. government, they are viewed as one of the safest investments. 

 

Why is the 10-year Treasury yield so important?

The importance of the 10-year Treasury bond yield goes beyond just understanding the return on investment for the security. The 10-year is used as a proxy (a figure that can be used to represent the value of something in a calculation.) for many other important financial matters, such as mortgage rates.

 

This bond also tends to signal investor confidence. The U.S Treasury sells bonds via auction and yields are set through a bidding process. When confidence is high, prices for the 10-year drop and yields rise. This is because investors feel they can find higher-returning investments elsewhere and do not feel they need to play it safe. 

But when confidence is low, bond prices rise and yields fall, as there is more demand for this safe investment. This confidence factor is also felt outside of the U.S. The geopolitical situations of other countries can affect U.S. government bond prices, as the U.S. is seen as safe haven for capital. This can push up prices of U.S. government bonds as demand increases, thus lowering yields.

 

Factors that Affect the 10-year Treasury Yield:

There are many factors that affect the 10-year yield, the most substantial being investor sentiment. When investors have high confidence in the markets and believe they can profit outside of Treasury securities, the yield will rise as the price falls. This sentiment is determined by both the individual investor and investors as a whole and can be based on any number of factors such as economic stability, geopolitical fluctuations, war, and more. 

 

Interest rates are another significant factor. Since they are the benchmark from which all other rates are derived, they have a direct impact on yields. When the Federal Reserve lowers its key interest rate, it drives demand for Treasury securities. 

Inflation has an effect on yields as well. Treasury yields rise when fixed-income products become less desirable. Over time, central banks will adjust (raise) their interest rates to combat inflationary pressure. 

 

*출처: Investopedia, Why the 10-year U.S. Treasury Yield Matters by Kristina Zucchi, November 30, 2021